A recent article in Kursiv painted an extremely rosy picture of our relations with China, suggesting Kazakhstan holds some kind of “special position” in Beijing’s plans. A political scientist insisted we should urgently “seize the Chinese historical impulse” as the global economy shifts eastward.
My opinion – it’s one-sided! It’s based on the view of just one expert, with not a word about the risks: about potential dependence or the difficulty of competing with Chinese companies.
Despite all the skepticism, the main point cannot be denied: the center of the world economy is moving eastward. Here’s how the balance of power looks in numbers (forecasts for 2025):
Share of Global GDP (by purchasing power parity):
- Asia: ~47%
- China (alone): ~20%
- North America: ~18% (USA ~15%)
- Europe: ~21%
Economic Growth Forecast for 2025:
- China: +4.5%
- USA: +1.4%
- Eurozone: +0.7%
Share in Global Industrial Production:
- China: ~32%
- USA: ~16%
As you can see, Asia already produces almost half of the world’s GDP, and its growth rates significantly outpace Western countries. This is driven by powerful industrialization, technological growth, a huge domestic market, and colossal investments in infrastructure. I know several startups that moved to Indonesia but eventually returned.
So, the main question isn’t whether this shift is happening, but what role we want to play in it. Do we want to be a passive carriage on the Chinese express, or build our own locomotive? The answer to this question will determine our future for decades to come. For Kazakh IT companies to compete with giants like Baidu, Tencent, and companies led by Kai-Fu Lee, they need to focus on niche markets, develop unique products with strong local specifics, and actively attract investment (not necessarily venture capital; even quietly funding your mini-project from your salary counts as investment).
Askar Aituov, Almaty JUNE 18 2025 for devsmap.com
Comments